Hugo Chàvez for Premier

Posted by Jeff Rubin on February 24th, 2010 under SmallerWorldTags: , , ,  • 7 Comments

Is there heartache in the heartland? As Albertans shoulder the weight of a new $4.5 billion budget deficit (not to mention the burden of equalization payments to the rest of Canada) despite the fact that they own the world’s largest oil reserve open to private investment, some might suggest that something is seriously amiss in the heartland. But instead of imposing painful health care spending cuts or equally unappealing personal tax hikes, maybe there is another, better way to go.

Oil is already trading at around $80 per barrel, and we are in the very early stages of a global economic recovery. Surely time is on Alberta’s side, and on that of the royalties the province commands from the billions of barrels of oil trapped in its tar sands. Those royalties are already larger than the ones from natural gas, historically the province’s fiscal staple.

What Albertans don’t seem to realize is that they might just be in a position to take a bigger slice of bitumen’s growing royalty pie—particularly when their competitor as the primary source of tomorrow’s oil supply happens to be Venezuela’s Orinoco tar sands.

The latest estimate by the US Geological Survey claims there are 513 billion barrels of heavy oil beneath the steaming jungles of Amazonia, roughly three times the deposits in Alberta. But there is an even bigger difference between the two resources, and it’s not what lies underground.

Venezuela, like most places in the world today, believes that its vast oil reserves belong to its state oil company, Petróleos de Venezuela. In Canada, by contrast, not only is there no state oil company (Petrocan, long privatized, was recently swallowed by Suncor) but there are virtually no foreign ownership restrictions on oil reserves. In a world of rampant resource nationalism, that makes Alberta a very special place.

With the enormous deposits in the Orinoco now off limits, Alberta’s tar sands represent almost three quarters of the oil reserves in the world that are open to private investment and ownership—and by that I mean where good corporate citizens like ExxonMobil can stick a huge straw in them and siphon off the resulting petrodollars to their head offices.

In Venezuela, the company had to walk away from one such straw, a multi-billion-dollar one that it built for the Orinoco tar sands (the 120,000 barrel-per-day Cerro Negro heavy crude upgrader), when President Hugo Chàvez decided to reroute that outward-bound flow of petrodollars. Next thing you know, Exxon (and its Canadian subsidiary, Imperial Oil) is pouring billions of dollars into its Kearl Lake, Alberta, operation, a project that was previously deemed too expensive.

The longer the Orinoco river basin remains a place to fish for peacock bass instead of extracting millions of barrels of heavy oil, the stronger Alberta taxpayers’ position is.

So forget about taking a new political direction with the upstart Wildrose Alliance Party. Facing a $4.5 billion deficit, maybe it’s time Albertans took a page out of Hugo’s playbook, and started getting a bigger share back from their biggest resource.

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  • robertmackidd

    I have read Mr. Rubin's book and for the most part found it very informative. I admit some parts were a bit on the futuristic side. The unfortunate conclusion I drew from the text is that in a lot of ways Mr. rubin may be dead on.

    Friday last (02-10-10) the Winnipeg Free Press did a piece on the Manitoba Trucking Association annual forum. As a sidebar they included comments from an individual that had spent 20+ years studying energy for the federal government. His conclusion was that manufacturing in Canada must be brought back from overseas because the global transportation system will be to expensive to sustain International Trade.

    I have spent 14 years as an International Trade Specialist. There are two related issues that keep me awake at night; First is the price of oil and its effect on global transportation networks, second is the Canadian dollar which rises as a direct result of increased oil prices.

    I to am starting to think that possibly the best of the export business may be past. Certainly the decline will not be immediate but a good bump in the cost of oil will derail the train.

    I have spent 14 years as an International Trade Specialist

  • marcovth

    This website is in Dutch, but the video interview with Jeremy Rifkin is in English.
    Very interesting. Just click on the video.

    http://www.eenvandaag.nl/binnenland/35444/topec…

  • marcovth

    Newsweek: So Much for Russia as an “Energy Superpower”
    http://mobile.newsweek.com/s/2499/InnerRSSFeedR…

  • bcmoney

    Mr. Rubin:
    Interested to hear a blog post from you on the ClimateGate issue and whether we really need to be focused so much on Climate Change / Global Warming along with the associated “Carbon Tariffs” you've supported in the past, or should we instead focus on the Earth's real problems:

    - Resource Depletion
    - Environmental Destruction
    - Species Extinction

    So in summary, how does ClimateGate change your opinion on Carbon Tariffs and if it does not affect your opinion whatsoever, why not?

    I've bought and read your book and would like clarification on your position because you almost had me convinced, until I realized that Global Warming may in fact be yet another taxation and enrichment scam of the elite.

  • marcovth

    Jeff wrote that cities will shrink …

    Here we go !
    http://www.detnews.com/article/20100225/METRO01…

  • Mike

    Jeff—you nearly ran me over in Toronto as I was leaving a Fund manager presentation–LOL

    If I was not in the middle of the Intersection at Yonge @ Wellington with you yelling at me ” Nice Book” and my having to take a second look ( thought you would have driven a more domestic vehicle LOL) I would have got you to sign 'your' book.

    Send me an Email–coffee sometime? It was Peak 'cheap' Oil that made me an early player in U3O8.

    I found this site years ago ( I brought first E mail billing to NA markets as well)

    Link: http://www.dieoff.org

    I suppose

  • Mike

    Jeff—you nearly ran me over in Toronto as I was leaving a Fund manager presentation–LOL

    If I was not in the middle of the Intersection at Yonge @ Wellington with you yelling at me ” Nice Book” and my having to take a second look ( thought you would have driven a more domestic vehicle LOL) I would have got you to sign 'your' book.

    Send me an Email–coffee sometime? It was Peak 'cheap' Oil that made me an early player in U3O8.

    I found this site years ago ( I brought first E mail billing to NA markets as well)

    Link: http://www.dieoff.org

    I suppose