Prime the Printing Presses

Posted by Jeff Rubin on March 24th, 2010 under SmallerWorldTags: , ,  • 6 Comments

There’s a reason for the record steepness in the yield curve these days. The huge gap between short-term and long-term borrowing rates isn’t just because capital markets quite rightly don’t believe that today’s virtually free borrowing rates in the money market are going to last. It’s also because of something a little more lasting than central banks’ current infatuation with near-zero interest rates.

Inflation may be a dirty word in the bond market, but it’s soon going to be a siren’s song for governments as they struggle to finance their mountains of newly minted public debt. Trying to reflate yourself out of a debt crisis may conjure up memories of the monetary histories of Brazil or Argentina, but good old Uncle Sam has a pretty good track record himself. And in some cases, he faced deficits that, in relation to the size of the American economy, were half of what he faces today.

Bondholders who financed World War II were repaid for their patriotism by a huge bout of post-war inflation that robbed them of nearly 15 per cent of their real return. Those who bankrolled the Korean War didn’t get hit quite as badly, but the resulting rise in inflation nevertheless whittled away at their returns as well. The folks who financed the Vietnam War deficits got burned the worst—the triumphant return of double-digit inflation swindled them out of nearly a third of the return they were owed from their US Treasury bonds.

Without fail, monetizing large government deficits has triggered massive rises in inflation in the United States and elsewhere. In the US, the huge deficits that followed on the heels of World War II saw inflation peak at almost 20 per cent in 1947. When they ran the printing presses to pay for the Korean War, it jumped from negative territory to nine per cent in less than a year. And when the Federal Reserve Board once again greased the presses during the Vietnam War, inflation soon made a triumphant return to double-digit territory.

Monetizing deficits has never been more attractive for the United States, which today benefits from its foreign lenders’ willingness to be repaid in US funds, putting them at the mercy of the US dollar exchange rate. The easiest way to stiff your foreign creditors is to devalue your exchange rate, and the fastest way to do that is to stoke your inflation rate.

Back in the old days, when Uncle Sam swindled his creditors through inflation, he was burning his own taxpayers, since Americans owned over 90 per cent of US debt after World War II. Today less than half of America’s debt is domiciled in the country.

Why screw your own taxpayers when you can screw somebody else’s?

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  • TAO

    I like the historical comparisons where the consequences of using military force results in massive debt and then the debt payments are eased with inflation.

    The Americans have four choices to deal with their current budgetary in balance, default, cuts to service, tax increases or inflation. The first three would result in far too much opposition. None are politically viable.

    From a politicians perspective the appeal of inflation is that there is no immediate opposition, no one complains. At first.

    Inflation creeps up on you and by the time you notice it's too late, the people responsible have cashed out.

    It will be interesting too see haw bad the effect of inflation are over the next 5 years.

    Any suggestions Jeff?

  • Bluefood

    Inflation? Where?

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010…

    I smell deflation making a comeback, US$ rallying in the face of a blowing up Eurozone.

    http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/206…

  • Eric Elbers

    Jeff,
    I have always had great respect for your work and opinions, and still do. Yet there are other widely respected economists such as David Rosenberg and Gary Shilling, taking a totally opposite, deflationary view of the future. They argue that the debt load is now so crushing that you cannot reflate the sucker. Something to do with velocity of money, i.e. people not borrowing and spending. What is a lay person to make of this? What clues are there to know who's got it right?
    Are there non-manipulated government economic statistics that can be relied upon as early warning signs?
    Eric

  • http://www.mobilemulching.com/ Glen Novello

    Hi Eric, I can't speak for Jeff but the inflation that he is talking about is the production of goods and services, where as other people talk about asset deflation. Two different forces that appear to counteract and give a nice stable inflation figure to publish.
    Asset deflation is happening all over the world and is about to happen soon in other markets (mine). But the deflationary pressures are only temporary and inflation caused by energy supply failure will see huge inflation figures for at least the next few years.

  • Cinquero

    >Why screw your own taxpayers when you can screw somebody else’s?

    Because the US will go back to the stone age if doing anything like that on a unilateral basis.

    Remember that the US does not produce anything essential itself anymore? Remember that large corporations like IBM are shifting their personnel massively outside the US for years now?

    If the US inflates its debt away, the rest of the world will isolate it from their production bases.

    Good luck with that. The US is effectively a slave to the rest of the world now. At least that is how it looks like IMHO. Is there a solution? Maybe. Maybe the solution is another war to give creditor nations a reason to allow such a stinky habit.

  • Cinquero

    >Why screw your own taxpayers when you can screw somebody else’s?

    Because the US will go back to the stone age if doing anything like that on a unilateral basis.

    Remember that the US does not produce anything essential itself anymore? Remember that large corporations like IBM are shifting their personnel massively outside the US for years now?

    If the US inflates its debt away, the rest of the world will isolate it from their production bases.

    Good luck with that. The US is effectively a slave to the rest of the world now. At least that is how it looks like IMHO. Is there a solution? Maybe. Maybe the solution is another war to give creditor nations a reason to allow such a stinky habit.