It took two tries, but I finally got past the ash cloud and made it to Lisbon to promote the Portuguese edition of my book. What I found when I got there was a country already preparing itself for the new smaller world that my book predicts.

The European monetary union is a vestige of the old global economic model that is becoming unsustainable. It may have taken triple-digit oil prices, and the massive recession they brought, to drive home the point, but Greece and Portugal are no better suited to a monetary union with Germany and France than Mexico is to one with the United States and Canada.

All eyes in Lisbon these days are trained on Athens, as a bankrupt Greek economy clings to fiscal life-support from its richer euro partners. But more Greeks are realizing that they might be better off if they forgo the bailout and the fiscal austerity measures that come with it, and just leave the monetary union. (What particularly irks the Portuguese is that, as members of the monetary union, they too had to shell out for the Greek bailout, when most suspect their country will be the next target of short-sellers.)

The spending cuts and tax hikes mandated by the terms of Greece’s bailout would subtract more than 10 per cent from its economy’s GDP. No wonder traders were shorting Greek bonds. No electorate is going to support that scale of austerity, particularly one that has been weaned on massive public subsidies and systemic tax evasion.

Normally, when countries get into this type of fiscal mess, they invariably devalue their exchange rate. But as a member of the European monetary union, Greece has no national currency to devalue. At least not today.

But bring back the drachma and suddenly Greece doesn’t have to cut off its right arm to appease the wrath of its lenders. The country wouldn’t get bailouts from Germany, but if the drachma falls low enough, Greece’s number one industry, tourism, could be bringing in some of that much-needed cash before too long. And at least then German taxpayers could get a holiday on Santorini for their money, instead of just sending a welfare check.

If Greece bolts from the euro, it will have a domino effect. Like the Greek economy, the Portuguese economy relies heavily on tourism. But how will the Azores or the Algarve compete with much cheaper Santorini holidays priced in drachmas unless Portugal follows suits and brings back the escudo. Would the peseta, and perhaps even the lira, be far behind?

For many, the dissolution or contraction of the European monetary union is out of sync with the imperatives of a global economy. Yet it is precisely these types of economic institutions that will find themselves out of sync with the new smaller world just around the corner.

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  • newfie

    “Greece’s number one industry, tourism” will be an endangered species when peak oil starts to bite in about two years. Ditto for the other PIGS.

  • arisg

    The EU is primarily a state union with the monetary integration inadequately implemented. I would reverse the question to how it can be corrected. It works for theUS; it would work for the EU.

    Second, the root problem with Greece is political. The Socialist party won last October deceptively declaring that “money exists!” and promising more benefits . From their first week in power, they started talking about the road to the IMF – when the spreads were still very low; half year of inaction and mishandling of the debt drove the spreads through the roof and made the IMF an inevitability, while too many economists thought the IMF was avoidable if the government did the sensible things early on.

    The economic problem is a curtain to the bigger political problem: Mr George Papandreou – a foreign born national with little ties with Greece who owes his election to the family name of his father Andreas who founded the Socialist party in the late 70’s – is now seen even from members of its own Socialist party as aiming to damage the European Union and using the fiscal problems as a means to bring Greece to its knees. He has a very open agenda against the idea of traditional nation-states such as Greece. The Greek people are now watching in astonishment – the perils of democracy, when voters don’t pay attention to the “small print” during the candidate campaigns.

    A 14% budget deficit is much more easily corrected in a country where the official estimate for tax evasion is 30%, the state spending on major sectors like health care is 2 or 3 times (multiples!) above cost – the difference being consumed by people who abuse the system and effectively steal state money, and a public sector who grew from 3% in the 70’s to an astounding 12% after it was expanded by socialist vote mongering policies.

  • rojelio

    Jeff, I request one small point of clarification: How will Greece (and other countries, for that matter) have a thriving tourist industry with triple digit oil prices and hyperinflation? Would you suspect that the global tourism industry might be one of the first casualties in the “new world order”?

  • jlow5

    I don't think the Greeks will get any where going back to their old currency. How would you like to get paid in drachma? A debased currency will not get them far.

  • http://www.pukeko.net.nz Pukeko

    Hi Jeff from NZ.
    1. The euro is unstable. I'm sure you are aware that the last currency union (which was gold backed) was called the lira, and that did not last, for the same reasons.

    2. Sheepfarming in NZ is in the doldrums. The main income generator is the wool (high quality merino wool is a nice product). Most lowland farms are being converted to dairy — over the sqawks of the greens — or into niche markets such as wine (Otago Reds are much, much better than the ones in Ontario, and half the price. Yes, I've drunk both). We make money by being ultra efficient and minimizing fuel inputs (for instance we don't use barns — the stock stay out in the snow, under a shelter or a hedge).

    Oh, and there is a rolling 5% cut system running through education and health in NZ. It makes our managers drink more coffee — which does NOT come from starbucks, since all good citizens of NZ have taste. :-)

  • http://www.pukeko.net.nz Pukeko

    Hi Jeff from NZ.
    1. The euro is unstable. I'm sure you are aware that the last currency union (which was gold backed) was called the lira, and that did not last, for the same reasons.

    2. Sheepfarming in NZ is in the doldrums. The main income generator is the wool (high quality merino wool is a nice product). Most lowland farms are being converted to dairy — over the sqawks of the greens — or into niche markets such as wine (Otago Reds are much, much better than the ones in Ontario, and half the price. Yes, I've drunk both). We make money by being ultra efficient and minimizing fuel inputs (for instance we don't use barns — the stock stay out in the snow, under a shelter or a hedge).

    Oh, and there is a rolling 5% cut system running through education and health in NZ. It makes our managers drink more coffee — which does NOT come from starbucks, since all good citizens of NZ have taste. :-)

  • Jose L. Adrião

    Hello from Portugal.
    Well I do agree that the monetary union has some disadvantages towards Greece and Portugal, although I do have to say that if we change to the escudo and the greeks change to drachmas, we'll be left behind by our neighbouring countries, and be shot out from the rest of Western Europe economically, we would become a poorer version of Switzerland(!). Besides drachmas and escudos are very weak currencies that can have a very high inflation in no time and that will only bring the country back down to rock bottom.
    To be honest (no offense) but we Portuguese just think you are nuts. I digress…

    Spain and Italy are in some situations worse than us. Spain has a 40% unemployment rate…that is huge compared to Portugal, so I think we're not just the only ones with similarities economically with Greece. They HAVE sincerely reached rock bottom, and there are not many things they can do to prevent it.
    Best Regards,
    José Adrião