There are basically two ways to cut carbon emissions, and neither one of them involves global climate change summits like the one just held in Cancún, Mexico. The way I see it, you can either price carbon, or you can restrict growth.

As they did for the previous meeting in Copenhagen, some 200 of the world’s economies came together and did absolutely nothing to halt their global carbon emissions, other than to commit to long-range targets with expiry dates set for a time when most current delegates will no longer be in public office or, for that matter, even be alive.

Economics furnishes a handy remedy to this—put a price on carbon emissions or tax the energy consumption that generates emissions so that emitters will have to pay the costs we’ll all ultimately have to bear as a result of climate change. But for carbon pricing to work, there has to be one global price, and it must be applied universally. Otherwise, emissions will simply migrate to the countries where there are the fewest deterrents.

The US, along with other developed economies like Japan and Canada, argues that it won’t make its industries or consumers pay for carbon emissions if other countries (like China, the world’s largest emitter) don’t do the same.

China responds that climate change doesn’t reflect only today’s emissions but summarizes cumulative emissions from over the last 250 years of global industrialization. On a cumulative basis, calculated since 1751, China’s emissions are still roughly only one third of the US’s.

Nevertheless, it’s the emissions from the rapidly expanding and largely coal-powered Chinese and Indian economies of today that threaten to push current atmospheric CO2 levels over some climatic tipping point.

China counters that its emissions, on a per capita basis, are only one tenth of North America’s. Following this logic, China should be entitled to emit more in order to industrialize sufficiently so that it can emancipate hundreds of millions of its citizens from economic poverty.

China sees attempts to control the growth of its emissions as efforts to limit its rate of economic growth, which in turn reduces the number of people that can be brought out of poverty. But is China’s plan to give hundreds of millions of its rural citizens first-world energy consumption levels ecologically sustainable, or, for that matter, even economically possible, given where oil prices are already trading?

In the absence of carbon pricing, there is one sure-fire way to cap emissions, and that’s to cap growth. What no one wants to acknowledge at the Cancún summit is that economic downturns are bullish for the environment. For example, in the economic chaos that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union, the country’s energy consumption (and emissions) fell by nearly 30 per cent. During the recent recession, global CO2 emissions fell without any government mandate to that effect and without any meaningful price on carbon emissions.

If the world is serious about tackling global climate change, we need to put a meaningful price ($50–$60 per tonne) on carbon emissions now. If we don’t, our next choice is to forego economic growth.

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  • Klem

    But we only need to do this if we all believe and have faith that CO2 is the devil. The majority of the public now are non-believers so these measures you suggest are not necessary anymore. The public believed back in 2008-2009 but they don’t anymore. It’s time you caught up.

  • David

    You seem to miss the point that global warming won't go away no matter how deep in the sand the “public” is ready to put his head,

  • Remi

    You cannot address climate change, or deal with limited oil supply and still have exponential growth that our economies are based on. Growth in the economy implies growth in resource consumption, pollution, etc. A carbon tax, which doesn't limit growth would only delay the inevitable. We live on a finite plante, it's time we faced that reality and transition a model that can last for generations to come.

  • http://twitter.com/jefferyjohn Jeff Sutherland

    Enjoy your ability to break things down Jeff, even I can understand this one!

  • Carbonman

    Global warming, which unfortunately hasn't happened in the last 12 years, would greatly benefit the world as a whole. For a start there would be way fewer deaths due the extreme cold we are experiencing at present (fewer people die from heat than they do from cold). Canada in particular would benefit by being able to populate the northern interior. The National Post has opened my eyes to Rubin – the guru who is always wrong!

  • Rojelio

    Putting a price on carbon does not appear to be politically possible right now. Ready or not though, we're entering a financial collapse on a global scale greater than anything we've seen in modern history which is almost certain to decrease emissions.

    Maybe its best if the banking system would hurry up and implode so we can get the depression over with and behind us. The alternative scenario could be to hobble along with business as usual with environmental degradation of every conceivable manner for another 3 – 4 years to the point that Mother Nature finally lays the hammer down in a manner that will be impossible to fix.

  • Rusty

    I don't “understand” . If Carbonman and Klem are right why pay a cent more for energy than necessary? Poor people are freezing to death already. I understand seniors and veterans are riding the buses all day in England to keep warm because they can't afford to heat their homes. Very mean of wealthy J R to propose such a nasty thing. Bonkers!

  • Rusty

    You're right. It's just about all over. I hope I can make it through this bloody cold winter never mind 3 or 4 more years of the same.

  • Rusty

    “Cancun Summit No Solution to Global Warming ” because a non-existant problem is impossible to solve. Anyway, why try to do it on the backs of the poor. Blimy.
    Merry Christmas and a lump of coal to you.

  • Rojelio

    Poor people are paying the multitrillion dollar tab for keeping two wars going as well as 700 military bases in about 40 different countries. Maybe these oil companies could pitch in a bit for some of their security and wars.

  • rojelio

    I agree. Exponential economic and monetary growth as we know it is toast. Peak oil / peak everything is here for real, not just a eco-wacko idea anymore. However, can't we promote exponential growth in certain areas…? Reforestation, recycling, human powered organic agriculture, energy from human waste, wind, solar, geothermal, algae farms, genetic engineering of energy-producing micro-organisms etc…..

    Bring on the depression, get it over with, there may be some silver linings. Goodbye to being the only cyclist or pedestrian swimming in an ocean of automobiles. Goodbye to some of these multinational corporate monsters. Goodbye to these disgusting megabanks. Goodbye to food with an ingredients list longer than Jeff Rubin's book. Cleaner rivers, more time with the family…..

  • rojelio

    Have you thought about how you're going to decorate your tarpaper shack on $10/week during the depression? Then we'll have something in common, neither one of us will need to care about CO2. It'll be more about food.

  • rojelio

    Thanks for your help in convincing the space aliens who study us that we're just as stupid as bacteria on a petri dish.

  • Randolf Seibold

    Hi Jeff, just republished links to your last three posts, at my blog on http://www.treepower.ca. Big fan of your updates, look forward to getting the book, and riding the bicycle into this huge and overwhelming 'smaller world'.

    http://www.treepower.ca/blog/j…

  • Rob Honeycutt

    Hi Jeff. I have an article I've recently written on solutions to coming energy uncertainties for light manufacturing and would like to send you a copy of it. But I can't locate a contact for you on this site.

  • Bellerphon

    You need to care about CO2, as plants (your food) thrive on it. Increasing CO2 is why forest cover worldwide and agricultural yield have been increasing for the last 30 years. It is not, however, causing global warming as NASA and NOAA are now admitting. Check it out for yourself and maybe J R should too. Taxing CO2 emissions, increasing fossil fuel prices in any way is ludicrous and causes misery worldwide.

  • Rojelio

    The trillion dollars a year for military policing of the oil supply while our infrastructure crumbles and 44 million people are on food stamps seems like a pretty good deal. Subsidizing both sides of the “war on terror” oddly all in places that have oil is an awesome use of capital. Why not expand operations over there already? It's so freakin cool when I hear Exxon bagged $8 billion in a swisher and didn't pay any taxes. One of my favorite activities me and my doctor get into is to breath car exhaust all day. I love these CO2 taxes and I'm thrilled to have geniuses like you supporting them.

  • Bellerophon

    If you promise to be a good girl maybe Santa will leave a gas mask in your Christmas stocking.

  • Bellerophon

    Speak for yourself and don't insult the bacteria.

  • rojelio

    Santa's not coming this year. He few into disputed air space and was killed by RPG fire.

  • rojelio

    Burn shit down.

  • rojelio

    At this point it doesn't matter where anybody puts their head. It's done. Peak oil might the one thing that salvages some aspect of being able to live on this planet.

    We're also missing 40% of our ocean plankton. How does one reverse that trend?

  • Bellerophon

    Sorry to hear that about plankton. Your social life must have taken quite a hit.

  • Bellerophon

    And even if it is happening you/the public will never be able to do anything about it.

  • Vinod Gupta

    What global warming ultimately means is that every human activity, except agriculture , has a carbon footprint. And even agriculture has a carbon footprint, depending on what is sustainable. As for the rest, the footprint is least in continent like Africa, and the footprint is masssive for a continent like North America or Europe. Ultimately too, a carbon-sustainable future will demand
    cooperation, democratization and a much simpler world. Are we ready for this?

  • Klem

    “We’re also missing 40% of our ocean plankton”

    What the? If that were true, we’d be dead already. Where did that number come from? Sheesh!

  • Klem

    Nope not me, I’m not readay for your tofu adled version of Utopia. I want cheap gas, and lots of it. Cheap, cheap, cheap! Wahoo!

  • Klem

    Nope not me, I’m not readay for your tofu adled version of Utopia. I want cheap gas, and lots of it. Cheap, cheap, cheap! Wahoo!

  • Klem

    “I can’t locate a contact for you on this site”

    He’s not there anymore, he didn’t pay his oil bill.

  • Klem

    “I can’t locate a contact for you on this site”

    He’s not there anymore, he didn’t pay his oil bill.

  • Klem

    I think you mean middle class people, they are the ones who pay 80%  of the taxes.

  • Klem

    I think you mean middle class people, they are the ones who pay 80%  of the taxes.

  • Vinod Gupta

    All commentators are talking from their positions of comfort. The undeniable fact of global warming is that the Arctic sea ice is rapidly shrinking and the glaciers are alarmingly on the retreat, whether in the Himalayas, Greenland or even Antartica. The current carbon emissions are only 50% in excess of what the earth can absorb, leave alone the cumulative excess. The only alternative to global sea rise is a simpler economy where all humans have to work, and technology is the true handmaiden of human progress not technological “progress”. Time is vital.