I can not believe a “learned” economist does not realize that oil is only markedly higher in US dollar pricing.

The run up in CDN dollar pricing and Euro pricing are far less robust.

Jeff, go back to school

One more thing….pricing and demand are not necessarily that same thing. I note that US crude numbers are building and are no lower than a year and two years ago.and the Chinese new SPR is building as well.

the Saudis are exactly correct. The world does not need, nor are they demanding more oil. If they add more, where would it go? There is still 30 million barrels in oil tankers waiting to get absorbed

30 million barrels – is that about 8 hours worth of production? From that perspective it doesn’t seem like a lot.

Yes, actually I estimate approximately 12 hours worth of oil considering global oil consumption (2009) was at approximately 77M bbl/day (one source on world oil consumption: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2174rank.html ). Just think, there is still a little more than 12 hours worth of oil sitting in tankers just waiting to be absorbed!

Looks like it’s rallying again even after the Goldman Sachs desperate play to keep it from hitting the 2008 ceiling. This is getting more predictable than that Space Mountain ride.

Could Saudi Arabia just be saving its fuel for higher prices? That country is running a one trick pony show! When the oil is gone they are finished! They know this so maybe they are trying to extract as much as they can from global consumers?

Flag, at any given time, there are dozens of tankers floating around transporting HUNDREDS of millions of barrels of oil…mostly into the tank farms of the big consuming countries that have many days of reserves stored there…plus the Strategic Reserves of many countries…The 30 Million barrels I referred to is oil NO ONE HAS ROOM FOR..erego…why produce more

As a general comment, I see that people play tricks with numbers..”12 hours of oil” Yes…it is actually less than that but, that would assume all the oil production in the world shut down..It is an incremental business…One barrel a day too much production, inventories grow, one too little, they shrink..This is true…Even Mr. Rubin is not suggesting all oil production is in danger of disappearing

I wonder how high the oil price roller coaster will go this time. I predict a wild ride with loops, climes and falls.

I’d like to mention the water stress on saudi arabia, and the fact that if you have to use oil to power desalinisation plants, then thats whats really eating into any spare capacity (if its actually there)

The whole MENA region is water stressed, and i read somewhere that half the water pumped through the infrastructure is lost through leaks, and non renewable aquifiers are used. As if that wasnt farcical enough, Yemen, a severely water stressed country, continues to expend over 50% of its water supply growing a narcotic plant called khat, which isnt a food source, just a way to get high.

And the human race will ‘Invent’ something to deal with peak oil? i think there is more chance of a monkey employed as a butler leaving the bananas in the fruit bowl while master is away.

Oilwatcher is dreaming. If politicians could reduce the price of oil by adding volume, they would do it in nano-second. No credible authority in the oil industry would cite oil tankers as a source of reserve. The Saudis have not had independent reserve verification since the 80′s. Oilwatcher needs to do a little macro-research before spouting ridiculous comments. Have a look at the next play off Brazil, and ask yourself why would they go after this?? Rubin was proven right with $147/oil. He will be proven again with the next wave.

Oilwatcher is dreaming. If politicians could reduce the price of oil by adding volume, they would do it in nano-second. No credible authority in the oil industry would cite oil tankers as a source of reserve. The Saudis have not had independent reserve verification since the 80′s. Oilwatcher needs to do a little macro-research before spouting ridiculous comments. Have a look at the next play off Brazil, and ask yourself why would they go after this?? Rubin was proven right with $147/oil. He will be proven again with the next wave.

As for other comments of critics. USA is no longer the major anything. The US dollar should continue to trend lower as the rest of the world moves to emerging markets. The trend is Asia. specifically China and India. Their respective economies will consume more oil each respective year as their middle class demands. The USA domination should diminish as the world markets become more sophisticated. The USA has no answer for their own debt crisis coming from their leaders. 3 billion people will surely consume more energy then 300 million Americans. Macro again.

Donald Trump says when he’s elected he just ask the Saudis to pump out more from that huge lake of oil the Saudis are hiding under their sands, none of the interviewers CNN FOX have asked him what happens when he gets the finger.
He also believes that Obama is an illegal immigrant, he’s got more conspiracies than Mulder and Scully.

I don’t think so. Like Jeff mentioned, prices are already at a point that we’re probably going to see an ugly global recession and a temporary crash in prices similar to what happened in 2008. Then the Saudis would have to panic sell whatever the last of their reserves at firesale prices , killing their strategy.

What I wonder is why the Saudis are having so many problems right now if they’re making record profits? They’ve got to have enough money for food? Why don’t they spend more of their billions putting people to work covering the entire surface of their country with solar? So many countries choose to create real estate bubbles making zillions of empty buildings. If you’re going to create an easy money bubble, why not build renewable energy infrastructure so at least you got something after the crash.

They won’t do it because they would create a major eyesore. More importantly, they interfere with the environment and the desert flora and fauna. They could cause species extinction.

anything man made is an eyesore. Solar panels are worse for the environment than oil fields? Are you joking?

Rubin actually said 200 dollar oil…and yes, we will get to 200 dollar oil…and the dow one day will be 20,000…when I do not know…it will even get to 50,000 when…eventually…Politicians in the US can not reduce oil prices..but they can increase them in producing countries. The US inventory numbers are above the average range…they have more than enough inventory…why should more be pumped. They are actually importing less and growing inventory…DO THE MATH

there;s still lots of unexplored areas to tap into. right now it’s all in the speculators gamblers and traders. There pushing prices up in advance of the driving season. Until we can figure out some way to curb speculation in the oil market we will be at the mercy of high oil prices.

Absolutely much worse. With an oil well you have huge amount of energy coming out of a tiny hole in the ground; energy that would require thousands of acres of solar cells to offset.
On top of that it is well known that the energy input to create a solar cell will never be produced over the life of the cell. The only device worse than this is the bird and bat mashing, scenery blighting, inefficient, undependable windmill. The man made steel bicycle is the other eyesore.

It is the speculation driving up the oil prices that leads to the capital formation required to solve the problem such as by further oilsands development.

the price for gasoline is way up, here in montreal.
if you think 30 million barrels floating on the sea is a lot, then 7-8 hours must be a long time, because that’s how long the world takes to burn through 30 million barrels.
as for price not being coupled to demand…well… that just makes no sense.
you seem to be either misinformed or unwilling to see reeality.

yes and if the world could produce 1 million more barrels per day, then the price per barrel would be in the range of $60-$70

What’ this with the eyesore stuff anyway? Anything that is not pristine nature could be an eyesore, but why pick on the bicycle? I bet looking at your fat ass on a riding mower could be considered an eyesore also?

Great article about declining oil production in Iran. Reserves up, while production is trending downward at a time when oil prices are near record high levels. “Iran has oil reserves to last for the next 150 years but faces declining output as fields mature, the head of its state oil company said on Saturday.”

http://business.asiaone.com/Business/News/Story/A1Story20110416-274032.html

Unfortunately, many rude, offensive individuals who take the high road in saving the planet ride bicycles, a product of open pit mining, oil extraction and other eyesores they deplore. Walking/running are the only pure form of transportation and the next step up the chain leads to unmitigated hypocrisy.

http://www.nationalpost.com/related/topics/Rendering+sanity+unto+Earth+goddess/4626055/story.html

It will be fascinating to see how many people on the right fall for this loud-mouth snake oil salesman. I’m not convinced that he understands peak oil or is too worried about banker rape of the working class. He’ll just “make a deal” and then “they won’t be laughing at us.” The left has no finger to point however. The election for “change you can believe in” was one of the greatest cons in recent history and there’s a sizable number of people who don’t even realize that things are getting worse.

yeah, but when they drive up the oil prices too fast and furious, they help crash the economy and then the oil prices crash also. Then the capital dries up.

By the way, is there enough cheap potable water to extract all the tarsands? (this is a real question, not a smartass comment).

Yeah, I’m starting to get worried that technology is not really doing that much except giving us thinner cell phones and creepier invasions of privacy. This crazy innovation seems to be lagging in the energy and transportation sectors. Is a passenger airplane that much more advanced than it was 10 years ago?

Nobody can credibly disagree that the west is in decline. However, I disagree with all these people who think that China and India are the next big thing. We are all committing environmental and central-bank driven economic suicide together. How are the Chinese/Indians going to feed a gazillion people on a fossil fueled agricultural platform and stem social unrest conveniently on the downslope of peak oil in the middle of world war 3? The Indians have no oil of their own, they’re toast. For that matter, the OPEC countries are looking at a trillion in profits, but who can argue that their house is in order?
The Chinese have been following in our (the US) carbon footsteps effectively until now but they really don’t have cheap oil anymore to continue this growth in the way that we had in the 60 years following WW2.

So are you suggesting we get rid of all mechanized forms of transportation, including buses and trains, which move people more efficiently than cars? While we’re at it, let’s get rid of all farm machinery, including animal powered models made of any metal, and see what happens.

So are you suggesting we get rid of all mechanized forms of transportation, including buses and trains, which move people more efficiently than cars? While we’re at it, let’s get rid of all farm machinery, including animal powered models made of any metal, and see what happens.

Goldman Sachs signals end of oil price rises
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/apr/12/goldman-oil-prices

Trump makes Scully and Mulder look conservatively cautious.

For a look at the sheer joy of tar sands, see “Is There Such a Thing As ‘Ethical’ Oil — Canada Claims It Has Lots and the US Is Buying It” by Jason Mark at axisoflogic.com

http://axisoflogic.com/artman/publish/Article_62799.shtml

You don’t need all that paraphanalia to run a backyard garden. Eat locally, beat the transportation inflation.
Bicycles are basically a plaything for children and garish eysores in their multi-paint decor which is only outdone by the pomposity of multi-colored skin suits, splotched with ads, sitting atop these thrones of enviromental perversity. They should be relegated to residential parks and playgrounds and not considered a serious mode of green transportation.
Better they be attached to generators and used to keep those useless windmills going on calm days to help cool the globe.

The obvious solution for a few hundred whinging natives is to pack up their teepees and migrate several hundred miles into a more pristine lifestyle area where they can live off the land and forget about skidoos and pickups. It hasn’t happened so maybe the tarpits and jobs are more appealing. The other extreme is to leave that (limited in areal extent) naturally- occuring oily mess in place and have the rest of us can wander off into the wilderness, rifle in hand, to live off the land. Which scenario would result in greater environmental degradation? What do you prefer.
This area is but a tiny spec of the landmass of Canada. Keep things in perspective. As far as greenhouse gases causing global warming are concerned, the whole mania is just on the edge of imploding but the politicians won’t admit it yet. Unfortunately, the public will pay heavily for this folly as the cost of all the grand schemes to avert it will have to be paid off.

Tell that to millions of people around the world (a good example is in Belgium or the Netherlands) who rely on bicycles for transportation regularly. It’s also worth noting that when Cuba experienced severe fuel shortages 20 years ago, many people got around just fine on bicycles. To this day, bicycles are still used a lot in Cuba. Meanwhile in China bicycles are gradually being replaced by more cars, creating more congestion and air pollution in large cities like Beijing. Is that an improvement from an environmental (or public heath) perspective? You have actually heard of the places I mentioned, haven’t you?

Saudis lower production by 800.000 barrels.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/17/us-saudi-oil-idUSTRE73G14020110417

WOW This goes against all business logic. Welcome to the decline side of Hubberts peak.

I saw on CNBC on April 27 that the Saudis had cut oil production 800,000 barrels a day when the price for WTI was about $110 and Brent crude was $123 a barrel. We were all waiting for an increase in their output. That was a 9 % cut, very significant. They claim to have about 3 million barrels a day of reserve production capacity. Is this new capacity actually being used to compensate for declines in other wells? Last fall they said that they felt that $70 to $80 was a fair price for producers and suppliers. They didnt’ want to kill the goose that lays the golden eggs and bullion for them. Earlier this year they said that they didnt want to increase production, to save oil for next generation of people. Their heirs, or ours, or both? Anyway, I dont know what the truth is. The problem with loosing credibility is that no one believes you any more even when you are telling the truth.

For everyone that claims that the Tar Sands is dirty oil, the truth is that it is all dirty. The future is the Tar Sands or stay at home.

I’m moving to Shanghai where things are moving upward and onward and folks are ditching their bikes for better times ahead and a more enjoyable life. May you enjoy jumping on your bicycle and riding off in all directions. Don’t run into God and really spoil your day bigtime.

See Ya all.!

I hope you enjoy the air pollution and congestion while I enjoy many peaceful and pleasant bike rides on scenic trails, accompanied by other bicyclists also out enjoying the ride, and not bothered by gouging petrol prices as much as the motorists.

Have fun!

There is a 60 day supply of oil in storage, it is not there for the lack of buyers, If it were offered up at a dollar less than the world prices, it would be gone in an hour. It is being hoarded. Much was bought at $50, now it is $100 plus. In a year it will be worth $200, perhaps. If you were a wealthy speculator, and believed this, wouldnt you fill every old tanker you could get ahold of and fill it with curde and sit on it? It is not there for your benefit, or a lack of a market.

Dirt bikers on pristine backwoods trails! Well that’s another abomination that I don’t have time to elaborate on right now. Got to rush!

I don’t recall saying anything about riding a dirt bike on pristine backwood trails.

I don’t recall saying anything about riding a dirt bike on pristine backwood trails.

A bicycle an ‘eyesore’ – what are you smoking – car exhaust?

I’ve ridden bicycles for 40 years, the vast majority of that time spent commuting to work. Anyone who says the bicycle is a toy is an idiot!

Anyone who claims the bicycle is a mere toy doesn’t deserve serious time spent on his nonsense.

Jeff, I hate missing out on comment on any of your articles,been down with a bug for abit,Now you are onto the so called and much vaunted extra volume out of the Saud.That volume that is stated,is the bottom of the barell,pardon the pun,it is heavy crude,she aint sweet.The dude that actually had the sweet-ist is our old budd momar-g.Them kids got the best sweet oil any where.I say let democracy rule.All of sudden natural gas is lookin kinda dandy and we got lots of er.drill baby drill,frack dadi frack.Unc

Those who play with their plaything for 40 years will never advance to adult activiies and modes of transportation. It affects the mind.

from beautiful Shanghai

Those who play with their plaything for 40 years will never advance to adult activiies and modes of transportation. It affects the mind.

from beautiful Shanghai

Those who play with their plaything for 40 years will never advance to adult activiies and modes of transportation. It affects the mind.

from beautiful Shanghai

As both a biker and a driver I’m puzzled by your position.

If 50% of current drivers rode bikes you’d have less traffic on the road, less demand pressure for gas prices and more parking space.
In fact, imagine a world where you’re the only enlightened driver, while all those losers save money and get healthier, and you have all the road laying empty for you across the horizon and empty parking space as far as your eyes can see.

Isn’t this utopia enough for you to start encouraging more people to ride bikes?

Cheers

As both a biker and a driver I’m puzzled by your position.

If 50% of current drivers rode bikes you’d have less traffic on the road, less demand pressure for gas prices and more parking space.
In fact, imagine a world where you’re the only enlightened driver, while all those losers save money and get healthier, and you have all the road laying empty for you across the horizon and empty parking space as far as your eyes can see.

Isn’t this utopia enough for you to start encouraging more people to ride bikes?

Cheers

Take a look at a newsreel of Shanghai from circa 1955 and you will see what you are promoting. Now you have orderly smooth- flowing traffic with a mode of transportation that everyone is aspiring to have. As I have said before 99.9% of people over 30 are not interested in using a bike for serious transportation and promoting this as a viable, effective green solution is ridiculous. Moreover, they are a hazard to drivers when mixed with vehicular traffic, are not pedestrian friendly and should be banned from the road to promote safety. They are playthings and use oil and mining resources like anything else to build.
The are a regressive technology that is never going to solve CO2 problems (CO2 is not a climate- altering gas in any case and worrying about it leads to other rediculous money- wasting regressive environmentalism).

Take a look at a newsreel of Shanghai from circa 1955 and you will see what you are promoting. Now you have orderly smooth- flowing traffic with a mode of transportation that everyone is aspiring to have. As I have said before 99.9% of people over 30 are not interested in using a bike for serious transportation and promoting this as a viable, effective green solution is ridiculous. Moreover, they are a hazard to drivers when mixed with vehicular traffic, are not pedestrian friendly and should be banned from the road to promote safety. They are playthings and use oil and mining resources like anything else to build.
The are a regressive technology that is never going to solve CO2 problems (CO2 is not a climate- altering gas in any case and worrying about it leads to other rediculous money- wasting regressive environmentalism).

1.I know we both promote freedom of choice so I’m not advocating turning the world into Shanghai anymore than you are saying everyone should be mandated to drive.

2. “99.9% of people over 30 are not interested in using a bike for serious transportation” Reference? Also, do you believe there is not an upwards trend in biking?

3. Biking is viable under certain conditions, especially distances under 10km in urban environments. Cars are very efficient when they carry a lot of cargo or people and take advantage of their flexibility in distances longer than 10km in environments where they can go faster, which is precisely outside cities. Because they don’t overlap I use both according to occasion. There isn’t a “one shoe fits all” solution here.

4. A driver has a 2 ton steel exoskeleton travelling at several dozens of miles per hour, a cyclist has his/her 60kg watery bag of meat. Are you serious when you say they’re an hazard? Do you realize that more pedestrians are killed by cars than any other vehicle or object? Did you know they are killed… mainly in urban environments? Sigh.

5. What is your criteria for saying they’re regressive? I’d ride my bike with immense pleasure even if CO2 was as harmful as baby bunnies.

For someone so bent on advocating for freedom you seem rather opinionated on things that people want to do individually.

So follow my appeal and introduce more people to cycling so that one day you can be the only driver in your hometown and finally have some legroom thanks to all those sissy bikers.

Arrogance, in fact, is a typical characteristic of the user.

The honourable poster advances some good points, all of which are taken under advisement for future consideration and action.
As for playtime amusement…..
Hey, if it feels good, do it. Always remember, however, if you are not part of the solution, you are part of the problem. Ruminate on that!
Hic academicus.

from Shanghai with my new Buick(very popular here) hoping the Saudis come through

Double digit prices are back….