Just why did the United States and the International Energy Agency decide to release 60 million barrels of oil next month from their strategic petroleum reserves?

The IEA cites the loss of 1.5 million barrels of Libyan production but that’s been going on since February. So why has it taken until July for them to respond?

Some will see the IEA’s move as a much needed slap in the face to OPEC price hawks such as Iran and Venezuela, which stymied a recent agreement to raise production quotas. But when have production quotas ever stopped OPEC producers from pumping more oil when they were so inclined?

Perhaps it is a vote of non–confidence in Saudi Arabia’s ability to ramp up production to its new 10 million barrel per day target.  But who in the IEA really believes Saudi Arabia could sustain that level anyway?  It hasn’t happened since the early 1970s. As I pointed out several weeks ago, the only country capable of producing oil at that rate is Russia, and it’s already doing it.

Still others will point to the use of the strategic reserves as nothing less than a macroeconomic stimulus measure akin to a tax cut, conveniently timed for an upcoming U.S. presidential campaign.

With the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s quantitative easing and Washington’s fiscal stimulus winding down, will timely releases from strategic oil reserves become the new kid on the block in the Obama administration’s economic tool kit? But Washington may soon discover strategic oil reserves are a very dangerous instrument to use. It’s a lot easier to print money than it is to pump oil from the ground.

Other than the level of oil prices and the resulting weakness in oil consuming economies, what supply shock does the release redress?

There is no doubt the loss of Libyan production has made world oil markets even tighter but triple digit world oil prices aren’t really about supply shocks.  They’re about the growing imbalance between ever-surging world oil demand and little-growing world oil supply. And that imbalance is becoming bigger all the time.

While global inventories can still bridge the gap in the very near-term, they are hardly a sustainable solution. Even the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve amounts to less than 40 days supply day for the U.S.’s 19 million barrel a day oil habit.

If inventories aren’t going to be depleted, tapping reserves today means restocking them tomorrow. When exactly does the IEA expect to take back into inventory to rebuild the 60 million barrels that they are now adding to the market?  What’s going to change in the world demand-supply balance that will allow inventories be rebuilt without stoking the price pressures that tapping reserves are supposed to relieve.

The only plausible time for restocking to happen is during the onset of another oil -induced global recession, which, of course, the IEA may think will occur sooner than most of us yet suspect.

 

 

 

 

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  • Propensity6

    Is this guy the only person in the world that doesnt know that they are doing it to put more dollars in consumers hands to try to grow the worlds economy?  Apparently, the loss of 1.5 MM barrels of oil from Libya did not cause supply shortages…..Even my second grader could tell you that this means there is enough production capacity at this time to meet demand

  • Rojelio

    60 million barrels doesn’t even add up to 1 day of global oil consumption. I don’t understand how everybody is saying that they expect this action to significantly impact prices between now and the election.

    Good point however, about dumping the reserves now and then restocking during the upcoming depression when oil prices are down to $40 again.

  • Rojelio

    Regarding triple digit oil prices, people have pointed to peak oil, QE and the speculators. Quite likely some combination of all 3 factors contribute but it would be interesting to know how much of this is caused solely by peak oil.

    Lots of people, like Propensity6 for example, say there’s plenty of production to meet demand, however if this is true why aren’t we paying $10/barrel anymore like what the “business as usual” economy desperately needs and why are we tapping the tar sands/deep ocean/shale?

  • Abitibidoug

    The problem with tapping the strategic reserves is it’s like giving the junkie more of their drug rather than dealing with the underlying addiction problem. Now should be the time to let market forces drive the price higher, and get on with the task of restructuring the economy to be less dependent on imported oil.

  • Plantagenet

    The Obama administration and the IEA aren’t nearly clever enough to sell oil now so they can buy it back later at lower prices.  Whats more likely is that someone in the Obama administration finally figured out that high oil prices are hurting the US recovery and the world economy, and decided to dump oil into the oil market to drive prices down.  The SPR release did drive down the price of oil—-for about two days—-but it has already recovered.  

  • Anonymous

    The IEA are indeed playing that cycle, as restocking will probably take place just a few months from now, when Greece becomes the initial salvo of the new round of defaults.

  • Anonymous

    This is likely partly about trying to buffer an anticipated mid-summer spike in oil (akin to that back in 2008) to avoid another oil-induced recession when Greece is about to default, and partly a last-ditch effort to satisfy the ‘Goldilocks’ syndrome that the current global oil industry needs, also to ward off the above-mentioned threat of recession.

    Regarding the ‘Goldilocks’ phenomenon, apparently, oil prices need to be held within a narrow (and increasingly more narrow) price margin.  If oil prices become too low, it becomes less feasible or non-feasible to extract the less accessible oil (e.g., tar sands), which can quickly reduce supply and cause price spikes.  If oil prices climb too high, it kills demand and drives prices through the floor incucing what’s described above.  Or, more simply, things need to be kept ‘not too hot, not too cold, but just right’.

    Peak oil brings stochasticity that can and will lead to chaos in the economy and everything else that’s so dependent on it.  And this is probably what the IEA knows and is partly trying to address in thier recent injection from reserves.  The 60 million barrels is to be released over a three month span, adding some 650,000-700,000 bpd to world production.

    Nations with mature economies have the opportunity to wean themselves from oil, but it will require major lifestyle changes, and that won’t happen until the Baby Boomers are worked out of the demographics.  Chindia will continue to play things out but will crash-and-burn at a very high pace because their development is happening at a much higher rate for many obvious reasons. 

    …but there is some hope, as even the U.S. military is investing very heavily into use of renewable alternative energies to maintain its ‘king of the castle’ world military presence, as we’ve seen recently with one of their new naval ships.  Hopefully that will spur many others to follow.  It needs to, and hopefully will, happen quick.

    But it would happen a lot quicker if the IEA would quit interfering and let things play out as they should so that more people would open their eyes to do what inevitably has to happen if humanity hopes to persist.

  • Anonymous

    Only vis a vis possibly helping to prevent another oil-induced recession shock like that of 2008.  Otherwise, a couple dimes a litre less aint going to do a heck of a lot to boost world economy.

  • Unc

    Jeff, a mild inducement for the summer driving season gas prices.If Lybya is thought as an impairment towards world oil prices, I would hate to see what happens when , not if, there is instability elsewhere that crude is involved.As I have said before,natural gas to liquids will be a  bridge fuel in the market as supplies of crude become less available,mabey this will be good here in north america for a whole host of reasons. The clock is ticking and the world is still getting smaller.Unc ft st john bc canada

  • Unc

    Jeff, a mild inducement for the summer driving season gas prices.If Lybya is thought as an impairment towards world oil prices, I would hate to see what happens when , not if, there is instability elsewhere that crude is involved.As I have said before,natural gas to liquids will be a  bridge fuel in the market as supplies of crude become less available,mabey this will be good here in north america for a whole host of reasons. The clock is ticking and the world is still getting smaller.Unc ft st john bc canada

  • Denny

    If the Saudis have extra spare capacity, why are they spending billions on steam injection (and seeking the technological expertise of Chevron) at the Wafra oil field? With subsidies rising to keep a restive population from revolting, why wouldn’t the Saudis tap the easy to produce oil that  it claims to have? Desperation is evident as mighty Ghawar receives CO2 injections. Matt Simmons and Jeff Rubin are correct; Twilight is setting is the Kingdom but it’s not comforting to note that Russia is heading to the arctic to increase supply. Where has all the cheap, easy to find oil gone?

  • Dhouston

    i think we will continue to go from a situation where we recover dragging oil prices higher followed by a economic downturn or slowing because of high oil prices. Oil prices will then fall followed by a slight recovery. basically our recoveries will be stopped dead in it’s tracks by oil going over 100 dollars for at least 3 months or more.

  • Dave

    The IEA can cite Libya, and Obama’s opponents can think it’s a stunt to make gas a little cheaper for poor folks on a summer driving trip.  Personally, I think it’s just a pissing contest with Iran.  And, given Iran’s vehement reaction, perhaps some satisfaction was obtained.  Iran has to figure out how not to become the next Iraq or Afghanistan.  Getting nukes, helping Iraq and Afghanistan to be even less susceptible to US military goals, and keeping the price of oil high to keep the US economy depressed, seem like strategies that are thus far working.

  • Dave

    The IEA can cite Libya, and Obama’s opponents can think it’s a stunt to make gas a little cheaper for poor folks on a summer driving trip.  Personally, I think it’s just a pissing contest with Iran.  And, given Iran’s vehement reaction, perhaps some satisfaction was obtained.  Iran has to figure out how not to become the next Iraq or Afghanistan.  Getting nukes, helping Iraq and Afghanistan to be even less susceptible to US military goals, and keeping the price of oil high to keep the US economy depressed, seem like strategies that are thus far working.

  • Jean

    I don’t think that strategic reserves have been used for other purposes than to fill a required lack of global supply.  They well know that using strategic reserves for anything else would be a waste of ressources and would not really impact oil price or other measures very temporarily.